AO 2025 - Women's final: Sabalenka vs Keys

There will either be a three-peat or a maiden major triumph on Rod Laver Arena on Saturday night.

Aryna Sabalenka / Huitièmes de finale Open d'Australie 2025©Corinne Dubreuil / FFT
 - Alex Sharp

The Australian Open advertising campaign suggests the happy slam 'hits different.'

It sure has this fortnight, with endless compelling contests and the hits only get bigger on Saturday in the women's singles final. World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka and American Madison Keys rocket the ball.

Who can fire themselves to glory?

Aryna Sabalenka (No.1) vs Madison Keys (No.19)

💪 The context / The current form

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka began the season taking the Brisbane title, is undefeated at 11-0 in 2025. On the flip side, Madison Keys also lifted a trophy in Adelaide prior to flying to Melbourne. The confidence is coursing through these exceptional athletes.

For Sabalenka it's another shot at history, aiming to become just the sixth woman to secure a third consecutive Australian Open crown, following Margaret Court (1969-71), Evonne Goolagong (1974-76), Steffi Graf (1988-1990), Monica Seles (1991-93) and Martina Hingis (1997-99). The 26-year-old is already compiling a legendary career, but finds the opportunity of completing the three-peat "crazy."

From Keys' perspective, it's the 29-year-old's 46th Grand Slam appearance. Only two women have taken more major adventures to conduct a champion's speech in the Open Era; Flavia Pennetta at US Open 2015 (49) and Marion Bartoli at Wimbledon 2013 (47).

The American still harbours heartache from her first Grand Slam final, when she was overwhelmed in a 6-3, 6-0 loss to Sloane Stephens at US Open 2017.

"Yeah, I've obviously thought of that match endlessly for the past eight years," admitted Keys. "I think during that match, I was so consumed with being nervous and the moment and the opportunity and all of that, that I never really gave myself a chance to actually play."

It shows at AO 2025 how much work Keys has put into handling nerves and the big moments.

🏆 Their 2024 tournament 

It hasn't all gone Sabalenka's way. The two-time defending champion escaped from a break down in the deciding set with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, with pure relief being the overriding sentiment. However, the manner in which she dispatched close friend Paula Badosa in the Final Four indicates Sabalenka is mentally, physically and game wise in tip-top condition.

  • 1st round: victory against Sloane Stephens 6-3, 6-2 (1hr 11mins)
  • 2nd round: victory against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3, 7-5 (1hr 34mins)
  • 3rd round: victory against Clara Tauson 7-6(5), 6-4 (2hrs 6mins)
  • Round of 16: victory against Mirra Andreeva 6-1, 6-2 (1hr 2mins)
  • Quarter-finals: victory against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 (1hr 53mins)
  • Semi-finals: victory against Paula Badosa 6-4, 6-2 (1hr 26mins)

In particular the last four rounds have proven why Keys is back in the primetime. Taking down her compatriot Danielle Collins, key contender Elena Rybakina and the resilient Elina Svitolina is mightly impressive. Add on top of that saving match point to down No.2 seed Iga Swiatek, Keys is arguably in her most effective form ever.

  • 1st round: victory against Ann Li 6-4, 7-5 (1hr 8mins)
  • 2nd round: victory against Elena-Gabriela Ruse 7-6(1), 2-6, 7-5 (2hrs 30mins)
  • 3rd round: victory against Danielle Collins 6-4, 6-4 (1hr 23mins)
  • Round of 16: victory against Elena Rybakina 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 (1hr 49mins)
  • Quarter-finals: victory against Elina Svitolina 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 (1hr 12mins)
  • Semi-finals: victory against Iga Swiatek 5-7, 6-1, 7-6[10-8] (2hrs 35mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

On paper Saturday's final falls in Sabalenka's favour.

The three-time Grand Slam champion is 4-1 up in the previous duels, winning their most recent match 6-4, 6-3 last year in Beijing.

Two years ago, Keys could only collect six games in their Wimbledon 2023 Elite 8 encounter, prior to a gut-wrenching 0-6, 7-6(1), 7-6(5) semi-final loss to Sabalenka at US Open 2023.

"To be that close and to lose it was just so heartbreaking," explained Keys. "So that one took a little while to heal from and get past, but I think at the same time I just kept telling myself that if I just keep putting in the work and doing my best and leaving it all out there, that's the only thing that I can do and that's the only thing that I can control.

"Yeah, obviously two very different days from then and now."

🎤 Heard in media

Aryna Sabalenka: "I was under so much pressure. It felt like she was just going for her shots, and everything was going in. She was just crushing it," she said, referring to their US Open 2023 battle. "I think at some moments she was just start questioning herself. I saw that and I felt like, 'Okay, now is the moment to make sure that you put as many balls back as you can.' I think that was the crucial moment. I just turn around things."

"This tournament she's playing incredible tennis as well. She's very aggressive player, serving well, moving well. I saw her matches here. She's in a great shape. It's also going to be a great battle. We had a lot of great battles in the past."

Madison Keys: "I think what's really impressive is her mentality. I think her ability to kind of always go for it, no matter what the score is, is really impressive.

I mean, she plays such fearless tennis. She has the ability to play so well that way. I think it's very unique. I think a lot of people, no matter what, even if it was a tight point, you kind of expect them to play a little bit more conservative or back down a little bit, and you know she's not going to do that.

"The one thing I really wanted to try to be better at was not playing more passive in big points and really, honestly, just trying to emulate the way she trusts her game and the way she goes after it."