AO 2025 – Women's semi-finals: What to expect?

Will it be the world No.1 vs world No.2 in the Australian Open silverware showdown on Saturday?

Paula Badosa / Quarts de finale Open d'Australie 2025©Corinne Dubreuil / FFT
 - Alex Sharp

Aryna Sabalenka's pursuit of a three-peat is the dominant narrative Down Under. The world No.1, just like the tiger tattooed on her left forearm, is hunting down another major.

However, five-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek has clicked into a clinical groove this fortnight, Madison Keys is unbeaten in 2025 and the resurgent Paula Badosa has the talent to win it all.

What a tournament so far, what an impressive last quartet.

Aryna Sabalenka (No.1) vs Paula Badosa (No.11)

💪 The context / The current form

Back in 2022, Paula Badosa was world No.2, with plenty of potential for Grand Slam glory. A back stress fracture and plenty of setbacks ensued, keeping the Spaniard out of action for the majority of 2023. Doctors explained that professional tennis might not be an option anymore. Physically and mentally, Badosa give it every sinew of effort to haul herself back to the elite as 2024 WTA Comeback Player of the Year.

As a result, Badosa sees her tennis and career through a different lense.

"When I was No.2 in the world, everything came very fast. Maybe I wasn't managing well the expectations in that moment. I was very scared when I was playing a player that was lower ranked than me," admitted the 27-year-old.

"Now I don't mind because I can accept, and you can see now the level. You can lose against anybody. You can win against anybody."

In Aryna Sabalenka's case, the superlatives are running out. She's the truly dominant force in women's tennis, as shown with Australian Open and US Open trophy lifts last season.

🏆 Their 2024 tournament

The reigning champion blazed through the first four tests against formidable players, until No.27 seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova wrestled away the initiative to lead by a break twice in the deciding set of their firecracker quarter-final. The composure and calmness that Sabalenka frequently refers to came to the fore, firing proactive shots into uncomfortable zones. No overreactions, no red mist, Sabalenka is a major expert now.

  • 1st round: victory against Sloane Stephens 6-3, 6-2 (1hr 11mins)
  • 2nd round: victory against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3, 7-5 (1hr 34mins)
  • 3rd round: victory against Clara Tauson 7-6(5), 6-4 (2hrs 6mins)
  • Round of 16: victory against Mirra Andreeva 6-1, 6-2 (1hr 2mins)
  • Quarter-finals: victory against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 (1hr 53mins)

World No.12 Badosa has really grown into this major. The Last 32 arm wrestle with Marta Kostyuk set the tone for a deep run, Badosa striking with conviction whatever the situation. Take the statement win over Coco Gauff, the Spaniard served for the match at 5-2, but managed to shut the door on a 'Coco' comeback, later saying in press that she stopped thinking about the occasion, the crowd, the opponent and just fought.

  • 1st round: victory against Wang Xinyu 6-3, 7-6(5) (1hr 27mins)
  • 2nd round: victory against Talia Gibson 6-1, 6-0 (48mins)
  • 3rd round: victory against Marta Kostyuk 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 (2hrs 32mins)
  • Round of 16: victory against Olga Danilovic 6-1, 7-6(2) (1hr 20mins)
  • Quarter-finals: victory against Coco Gauff 7-5, 6-4 (1hr 43mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

The tale of the tape is heavily favouring the top seed. Sabalenka has been hailed the victor in their past five encounters to lead a 5-2 record.

Most recently, the world No.1 posted a 7-5, 6-1 triumph in the Roland-Garros third round last season.

Since then, Badosa 2.0 has gone from strength to strength. This is a primetime match against very close friends.

🎤 Heard in media

Aryna Sabalenka: "She's a great player and she has been through a lot. Now she's back on her best game. I'm really happy to see that.

"I saw her games here. She's playing really great tennis, I think I just need to focus on myself, and I have to stay aggressive, and I have to put her under a lot of pressure.

"I'm really excited to face her in the semis. It's definitely going to be great battle, and I'm really looking forward."

Paula Badosa: "We deal with it pretty normal. Plenty of times we had messages before the match. It's pretty chill," said the Spaniard, referring to previous matches with Sabalenka. "We know how to separate things very well. We spoke about it so many times.

"We admire, respect each other. It's going to be a battle inside the court, of course, but outside it's super normal.

“I'm never going to feel freedom until I win the tournament. I'm always like this. It's my personality. It's my character. I will step on the court in the semi-finals and I will want to win so badly. That's part of me.”

Madison Keys (No.19) vs Iga Swiatek (No.2)

💪 The context / The current form

In terms of her demeanour on court (pure business mode) and persona off court, this is Iga Swiatek's best Australian Open by far. At Melbourne Park it hasn't quite clicked for the Pole until now. "It's not like I need to prove it to other people. It's more that I needed to kind of believe. I feel I believe more now."

Madison Keys, champion in Adelaide earlier this month, should never be underestimated. Since 2015, only Serena Williams (15) and Sabalenka (10) have made more Grand Slam semi-finals than the American (seven). With 114 major victories under her belt, the US Open 2017 finalist knows how to handle any moment within the Grand Slam arena.

🏆 Their 2024 tournament

As you can see below, there have been plenty of tight sets, real gamechangers. So far Keys – spearheaded by a scorching serve – is holding her nerve.

  • 1st round: victory against Ann Li 6-4, 7-5 (1hr 8mins)
  • 2nd round: victory against Elena-Gabriela Ruse 7-6(1), 2-6, 7-5 (2hrs 30mins)
  • 3rd round: victory against Danielle Collins 6-4, 6-4 (1hr 23mins)
  • Round of 16: victory against Elena Rybakina 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 (1hr 49mins)
  • Quarter-finals: victory against Elina Svitolina 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 (1hr 12mins)

No.2 seed Swiatek has certainly discovered her A Game. Just 14 games going to the opposition, that says it all.

  • 1st round: victory against Katerina Siniakova 6-3, 6-4 (1hr 21mins)
  • 2nd round: victory against Rebecca Sramkova 6-0, 6-2 (1hr)
  • 3rd round: victory against Emma Raducanu 6-1, 6-0 (1hr 10mins)
  • Round of 16: victory against Eva Lys 6-0, 6-1 (59mins)
  • Quarter-finals: victory against Emma Navarro 6-1, 6-2 (1hr 29mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

Swiatek is the favourite on paper, having opened up a 4-1 record against the heavy-hitting American.

They met twice last year on clay in Madrid and Rome, when the Pole stormed to 6-1, 6-3 scorelines on both occasions.

However, Keys did prevail in their most recent hard court duel in Cincinnati, USA, three year ago with a 6-3, 6-4 tally.

🎤 Heard in media

Madison Keys: "I think Iga is tough to beat because she has a lot of spin kind of naturally on both sides. She's a good server. She's a good returner. She moves incredibly well.

"I think the biggest thing that makes her so difficult to beat is because since she moves so well, if you miss your spot just slightly, she has enough time to recover, and then the point goes back to neutral. It's really hard to ever really get ahead in a point.

"There's just such a balance of being aggressive and trying to get her to move and going for things, but not pressing too hard and not going for anything too quickly. So I think she just does such a good job at making people start going for a little bit too much too quickly."

Iga Swiatek: "I wasn't really looking forward before, so now that I know my opponent, we'll do the work with Wim (Fissette) and prepare the tactics.

"Obviously, she likes to also play intense and pretty fast and she's using her powers, especially on a faster hard court. I need to be ready for that and be proactive and also good in defence.

"I guess in semis if you play against any opponent, they deserve to be there, so it's going to be tough no matter what, no matter who is on the other side of the net. So, I'll do my best."