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AO 2026 – women’s semi-finals: What to expect?

128 competitors are down to a high-quality quartet with the trophy in reach at Melbourne Park.

Jessica Pegula & Elena Rybakina / WTA Finals
 - Alex Sharp

What a fortnight so far at the Australian Open 2026. In the women’s singles draw there are four familiar faces gunning for glory on Saturday night on Rod Laver Arena.

One tour-leading talent knows what it takes at Melbourne Park, one is seeking a maiden Grand Slam final. Another wants to add to their major haul, whilst the fourth has been ever so close in New York City.

Let’s take a look at Thursday’s semi-final showdowns.

Aryna Sabalenka (No.1) vs Elina Svitolina (No.12)

💪 The context / The current form

Five challengers have given it their all, five have failed to take a set off Aryna Sabalenka at AO 2026.

The world No.1 has blazed into the semi-finals for the fourth time in a row and is in prime position to add to her 2023-24 Australian Open triumphs.

It’s going to take a blockbuster performance to take down the top seed.

Step forward Elina Svitolina. The 31-year-old is well in the groove, competing at a level matching her former world No.3 exploits before maternity leave. The Ukrainian is thriving with full-throttle tennis, seemingly in great shape and with burgeoning belief.

Svitolina has seven world No.1 victories to her name. To post an eighth on Thursday would launch her into a first Grand Slam final. What an incentive.

🏆 Their 2026 tournament

After falling to the peak force of Sabalenka in the Elite 8, American youngster Iva Jovic described that formidable task: “Aryna, obviously very powerful and hits a big ball and don't let you really get into the match from the beginning, you have to accept that and adjust to that tempo of points, because you can't really choose how it's going to play.

“Have to accept that it's going to be quick-fire, and it's going to be short. Then you have to kind of match that extreme almost.”

That’s it, Sabalenka dictating play at her pace. When it’s got to crunch time, Sabalenka has come up clutch. She’s broken the previous record held by Novak Djokovic by winning 20 straight tie-breaks at Grand Slams.

  • 1st round: victory against Sarah Rakotomanga 6-4, 6-1 (1hr 16mins)

  • 2nd round: victory against Zhuoxuan Bai 6-3, 6-1 (1hr 12min)

  • 3rd round: victory against Anastasia Potapova 7-6(4), 7-6(7) (2hrs 2 mins)

  • Round of 16: victory against Victoria Mboko 6-1, 7-6(1) (1hr 26mins)

  • Quarter-finals: victory against Iva Jovic 6-3, 6-0 (1hr 29mins)

Svitolina, who arrived in high spirits as the Auckland champion, has transferred that sublime form across from New Zealand.

Desperate to bring joy and light relief to her war-torn homeland, the Ukrainian is never going to give up a single point. Inspired and hitting free, the 31-year-old was especially impressive to go back-to-back against Top 10 stars in the most recent rounds.

  • 1st round: victory against Cristina Bucsa 6-4 6-1 (1hr 9mins)
  • 2nd round: victory against Linda Klimovicova 7-5, 6-1 (1hr 15mins)
  • 3rd round: victory against Diana Shnaider 7-6(4), 6-3 (1hr 33mins)
  • Round of 16: victory against Mirra Andreeva 6-2, 6-4 (1hr 23mins)
  • Quarter-finals: victory against Coco Gauff 6-1, 6-2 (59mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

On paper this is Sabalenka’s to take. The world No.1 has prevailed in the past four encounters to lead the head-to-head at 5-1. The last hard court clash came at Cincinnati 2024, when Sabalenka posted a 7-5, 6-2 scoreline.

🎤 Heard in media

Aryna Sabalenka: “It doesn't matter who is going to make it to the semis. It's going to be a battle, because whoever makes it there, it's incredible player. I think my approach going to be the same,” she said, speaking before Svitolina took on Gauff.

“I'll just go, and I'll be focussed on myself and on my game, and I'll be fighting for every point. That's my approach.”

Elina Svitolina: “It's a big challenge, of course, to play No.1 in the world. It's no secret that she's very powerful player. I watch a little bit of her match today. She was playing great tennis.

“I think she's very consistent for the past years with everything that she does on the court. I'll have to be ready for that, try to find the ways and the little holes, little opportunities in her game. When you play the top players, you have to find these small opportunities and then be ready to take them.”

Jessica Pegula (No.6) vs Elena Rybakina (No.5)

💪 The context / The current form

Here are two of the most consistent tennis players on the planet, who know exactly how to navigate the Grand Slam gauntlet.

Both have competed in major finals – Jessica Pegula eager to flip the script on US Open 2024 silver, on the other hand, Elena Rybakina can call upon experience of ruling Wimbledon 2022.

The winner on Thursday will have to earn their final ticket, it won’t be presented without an almighty tussle.

🏆 Their 2025 tournament

The American hasn’t missed a beat this fortnight. Winning every set, she’s come up with all the answers to chalk up her finest Australian Open to date.

Halting close friend and defending champion Madison Keys with an emphatic victory was a signal of intent. Keeping the firepower of countrywoman Amanda Anisimova out the strike zone for the majority of their encounter portrays a player who is competing with tennis and tactics at the very peak.

  • 1st round: victory against Anastasia Zakharova 6-2, 6-1 (1hr 6mins)
  • 2nd round: victory against McCartney Kessler 6-0, 6-2 (58mins)
  • 3rd round: victory against Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-3, 6-2 (1hr 6mins)
  • Round of 16: victory against Madison Keys 6-3, 6-4 (1hr 18mins)
  • Quarter-finals: victory against Amanda Anisimova 6-2, 7-6(1) (1hr 35mins)

Just like Pegula, the 26-year-old has taken each set Down Under. The way Rybakina unravelled the world No.2 Iga Swiatek’s game in the quarter-finals is all the evidence required to prove the Kazakh can go the distance and capture a second Grand Slam title.

  • 1st round: victory against Kaja Juvan 6-4, 6-3 (1hr 12mins)
  • 2nd round: victory against Varvara Gracheva 7-5, 6-2 (1hr 15mins)
  • 3rd round: victory against Tereza Valentova 6-2, 6-3 (1hr 22mins)
  • Round of 16: victory against Elise Mertens 6-1, 6-3 (1hr 17mins)
  • Quarter-finals: victory against Iga Swiatek 7-5, 6-1 (1hr 35mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

These Top 10 stalwarts have collided six times, sharing the spoils at 3-3.

Rybakina has the edge having shaken hands as the victor in the last two matches. En route to the WTA Finals trophy lift last November, Rybakina roared back for a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 comeback in the semi-finals.

🎤 Heard in media

Jessica Pegula: “I just played her in Riyadh (WTA Finals). She was playing really good tennis. Obviously won the event. It's going to be really tough.

“Anyone that serves like she does, she's always going to be in the match. It's not like she can only serve. She has a pretty well-rounded, all-around power game.

“We had a really close match in Saudi, so I'm going to have to kind of look at that and see some things that I can do different. She looks like she played a really clean match today. I was watching a little bit.”

Elena Rybakina: “She's very experienced opponent and she moves well, and also her ball stays quite low. So that makes a bit difficult sometimes to play her, but I will try to adjust.

“I’ll talk with my team. We make some plan for the match, will try to do my best, definitely.

“Still, a lot of things to improve, to work on, but the most important that I'm trying to stay aggressive whenever I get the chance to step in, maybe risk a little bit.”