Swiatek v Haddad Maia: Where the match can be won

She came from a set down to defeat No.7 seed Ons Jabeur on Wednesday and became the first woman from her country to reach the Roland-Garros semi-finals in Open Era history in the process.

Swiatek and Haddad Maia have met only once before, with the Brazilian claiming victory in three gruelling sets in the round of 16 last year in Toronto.

Here's a tactical breakdown of their upcoming semi-final clash.

Can Haddad Maia follow the blueprint? 

What’s a recipe for disaster against Iga Swiatek? Playing too passive. Over the course of her current 12-match winning streak on the Parisian clay, Swiatek has proven time and time again that she can lay waste to indecisive opponents like no other player on tour.

But there is a way to beat her.

The blueprint to defeat Swiatek – on clay or otherwise – has been put in place this year by the Pole’s rivals, Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka. The pair have been able to earn stunning victories over the world No.1 by forcing her out of her comfort zone.

By pursuing the first strike, and not allowing her to set up her patterns and dominate rallies with her heavy topspin drives from the baseline, Sabalenka and Rybakina have created a model that has generated success.

Haddad Maia has her own blueprint as well.

During the pair's first and only meeting, the Brazilian was able to punish Swiatek's second serve with regularity, earning 19 break points and converting four breaks of serve to earn her only career win over a reigning No.1.

It will be imperative for Haddad Maia to keep up the pressure on the Pole, so she isn't forced into reactive mode against the dominant baseliner.

Iga's return game 

Undoubtedly Haddad Maia, blessed with a devastating forehand and booming serves, will attempt to tilt the court in her favour by going after the first strike. One way Swiatek can completely defuse the tactic would be to continue the trend she has set in Paris this year: making pinpoint returns and dominating her opponent’s serve. 

Remarkably, Swiatek has broken serve in 25 of her 34 return games – an eye-catching 74 per cent – which leads all players in the tournament. 

It could be a toxic setup for the Brazilian, who has only managed to win 65 per cent of her service games through the quarter-finals - the lowest percentage of all four semi-finalists by far.

If Swiatek can get a read on Haddad Maia's serve and control the tone of rallies in her return games, she’ll make things very difficult for the first-time Grand Slam semi-finalist. 

Key for Haddad Maia will be maintaining a high first-serve percentage. It's something she has done well through five rounds, making 68 per cent of her first-serves - more than any of the four semi-finalists. If she fails to keep that number high, trouble will surely ensue: Swiatek has been lethal against her opponent’s second serves, winning 68 per cent of points played against them. 

Energy matters - so does self-belief

Haddad Maia will have to recover quickly for Thursday's showdown. She has already spent 12 hours and 55 minutes on court (in singles, two more hours in doubles) to reach the semi-finals, including six hours and 20 minutes in her last two victories alone - far from a desirable statistic.

Meanwhile, Swiatek has breezed through her five matches at an alarming clip. The 22-year-old has spent a mere 5hr 32min on court and dropped just 15 games in the process (she had a first-set retirement in the fourth round).

If it becomes a physical battle like their previous encounter, the advantage will be firmly on the Pole's side of the court (in theory at least, but as Ons Jabeur said, Haddad Maia "is a beast").

Given that this edition of Roland-Garros marks the first time that Haddad Maia has ever been beyond the second round of a Grand Slam, Thursday's semi-final could be difficult to manage on multiple levels. Pressure and fatigue can wreak havoc on best-laid plans. Haddad Maia will have to keep fighting as she has done through five rounds, and avoid an emotional letdown at all costs.

With Swiatek carrying a 26-2 lifetime record at Roland-Garros into a semi-final on the court that she dominates like no other, the cards are most certainly stacked against the 27-year-old.