Muchova v Sabalenka: Where the match can be won

Muchova’s serve v Sabalenka’s return

The power and aggression of the Sabalenka return is a key factor in her success and the 25-year-old has dominated most of her opponents in this year’s tournament. Only in one match, her second-round win over Iryna Shymanovich, has she failed to win at least 50 per cent of points on the opponent’s second serve.

Muchova will need to get a high percentage of first serves in to keep Sabalenka at bay. With the exception of her quarter-final, when she was down at 57 per cent, Muchova has been in the mid-60s in each match, and winning a healthy 60-70 per cent of points on first serve. On second serve, she’s been almost as successful, winning 59 per cent of points. That stat is likely to be severely tested by Sabalenka.

0-4 shot rally category likely to be key

Sabalenka excels in first-strike tennis. When she unloads on her groundstrokes, her opponent has to find a way to soak it up. In this category, not surprisingly, she has a big edge.

The good news for Muchova is that she herself has improved as the tournament has progressed. In her first two rounds, she lost the 0-4 category both times; since then she’s won it in all three.

The problem is that Sabalenka has been incredibly dominant when the rally has been four shots or fewer. The only time she didn’t come out on top, interestingly, was against Elina Svitolina in the previous round, but overall she’s 250-194. How well Muchova is able to soak up the power could go a long way to deciding the outcome.

Muchova has to get to the net, somehow

There’s a hint of Ash Barty about Karolina Muchova in her ability to mix things up, from deft drop shots to angles, lobs and changes of pace. But if she’s going to have any luck against Sabalenka, she’s going to need to play a good chunk of the match in the service box.

Muchova has great hands and she’s won at least 70 per cent of her net points in this tournament in each match, including an outstanding 88 per cent in her win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarter-final. Overall, she’s won 86 of 114 points at the net. The big question is: can she get there enough times to make the difference?

Will the prospect of the No.1 ranking add pressure?

Before this year, Sabalenka had never been past the third round at Roland-Garros. But this is a very different Sabalenka; the pressure of trying to win a first Grand Slam title having been lifted by her Australian Open triumph.

Should she win the title here on Saturday (or even if she loses in the semi-final and Iga Swiatek does not reach the final), Sabalenka would also become world No.1 for the first time, which adds its own pressure. But the No.2 seed has become calmer under pressure and is in the form of her life.