US Open 2026 – Women’s final: What to expect?

Aryna Sabalenka (No.1) vs Elena Rybakina (No.2)

💪 The context / The current form

Four-time Grand Slam champion Aryna Sabalenka secured the No.1 ranking all the way back in 21 October, 2024. Since then, the 28-year-old has led the WTA roster for 99 consecutive weeks, producing plenty of memorable moments along the way.

However, that reign is over.

Sabalenka will stride onto Arthur Ashe Stadium to face the woman replacing her in top spot on Monday, a familiar foe, Elena Rybakina.

Although the Kazakh states the No.1 ranking is “just a number” for now, Rybakina has the chance to lift a third Grand Slam title too to cement her credentials as the tour leader.

How has this come about?

Rewind to March and Sabalenka swept the ‘Sunshine double’ but has since endured a rocky patch by her own exemplary standards – losing leads, losing a set 6-0, losing well before the business end of some tournaments. That’s not the tiger we know.

The world No.1 went into the US Open knowing Rybakina had caught up and could steal away the top ranking with a semi-final run. It’s done and dusted, but has losing that crown served up extra fuel for Sabalenka?

The 28-year-old, whilst out to show the rest of the tour she still leads the pack, is also bidding to become just the third woman in the Open Era to capture three consecutive US Open singles titles. It’s Serena again (2012-14) and Chris Evert (1975-78) who Sabalenka would join. ‘Three peat’ sounds and looks pretty good on the tennis resume.

🏆 Their 2026 tournament

As a sign of her major consistency, Sabalenka hasn’t tasted defeat at Flushing Meadows since the 2023 final.

The world No.1 has torn through the draw this fortnight. Then in the quarter-finals, Wimbledon winner Linda Noskova pushed Sabalenka to the brink at 4-2 up in the decider. Sabalenka’s fierce determination and relentless fighting spirit was back in abundance to eventually soar into the semi-finals.

It’s now 19 successive US Open victories following a champion’s display of controlled aggression to blaze past No.3 seed Jessica Pegula, who stated: "I think the way she played tonight, she would’ve beaten anybody probably.”

1st round: victory against Camila Osorio 6-2, 6-4 (1hr 27mins)

2nd round: victory against Polina Iatcenko 6-1, 6-1 (54mins)

3rd round: victory against Kamilla Rakhimova 6-3, 6-4 (1hr 29mins)

Round of 16: victory against Taylor Townsend 6-4, 6-3 (1hr 15mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Linda Noskova 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(7) (2hrs 22mins)

Semi-finals: victory against Jessica Pegula 7-5, 6-2 (1hr 20mins)

Considering Rybakina turned her ankle last month at the WTA 1000 Cincinnati and was forced to retire injured at the quarter-finals stage, it’s an immense effort from the Kazakh.

She was unable to walk, let alone practice, for several days, but despite the disrupted preparations, the No.2 seed has proven at Queens why she is soon to be crowned the Queen of the WTA.

The lethal weapon, the serve, has been destructive, the shotmaking has been explosive. Elite major champions or major finalists such as Noami Osaka, Zheng Qinwen and Coco Gauff all couldn’t keep apace with this 27-year-old at the peak of her powers.

1st round: victory against Thea Frodin 6-3, 6-2 (1hr 14mins)

2nd round: victory against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-2, 6-4 (1hr 8mins)

3rd round: victory against Yuliia Starodubtseva 7-6(6), 6-3 (1hr 52mins)

Round of 16: victory against Naomi Osaka 6-1, 6-4 (1hr 6mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Zheng Qinwen 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 (2hrs 14mins)

Semi-finals: victory against Coco Gauff 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 (2hrs 9mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

Sabalenka rules their rivalry at 10-7, but significantly, Saturday’s silverware showdown will be their 15th clash on a hard court. That series is locked level at 7-7, indicating this final is going to be yet another finely poised rumble.

Rybakina inflicted two standout victories for the trophy lift at the WTA Finals last November and then 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in an absorbing Australian Open final.

Sabalenka gained revenge with 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(6) in the enthralling Indian Wells final, prior to a 6-4, 6-3 semi-final scoreboard at the Miami Open.

They know each other’s game inside out, Saturday will come down to controlling the rallies when the returner can latch onto the bruising deliveries. Get set for a true exhibition of first strike tennis.

🎤 Heard in media

Aryna Sabalenka: "It does feel a little bit weird. You can perform well in the tournament but still have the No.1 position taken away… It's okay. I love that. That's the beauty of sport, right? Like, everyone chasing everyone, and it's all about little things that you improve and you get better at.

“She's (Rybakina) a big server. She really improved over the years on the baseline game, so it's going to be a physically and mentally tough match. But I'm ready for the fight. I'm ready to do everything to get the win, so I'm excited for that match.

“I can say that I feel confident and I feel mentally and physically really strong right now.”

Elena Rybakina: “We played many times. We practiced also before. She's a very aggressive player. It's difficult to play with her, mentally, physically, because she has big game, big serve.

“I will need to come with all the energy I will have, bring my best serve against Aryna and make the right decisions in the right moment, because most of the time, it's a tight score. This is where the decision makes a difference. We will see what's going to happen, but I definitely will try my best and give it all.

"We push each other when we play these matches, and you clearly can see what you need to work on more. I think that's great that you play against someone who pushes you till the limits.”