Defence of second serve crucial
Part of Muchova’s success has been down to how well she’s defended her second serve.
On average over her six matches, she’s won 61 per cent of points behind it, which is high, second overall in the women's rankings for this event and well above the tournament average of 43 per cent. Swiatek averages 55 per cent, which is also very good, but Muchova has done it by varying the speed and placement of her serve, never allowing her opponents to see the same ball twice in a row.
Swiatek will be aggressive on return – she averages 53 per cent of points won on her opponent’s first serve (third overall) – but Muchova has the skills to cope.
Experience may yet count
The one unknown is how Muchova handles the occasion.
We know from Swiatek’s three previous Grand Slam finals that she is strong mentally, but this is a first Slam final for the Czech and even for someone who seems so unflappable, the biggest stages can cause even the calmest players to stress.
There’s so much at stake for both women but for Muchova, while she could say she has nothing to lose, she also doesn’t know if this is a one-off or not, so the nerves will inevitably be there.