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US Open 2026 – Women’s semi-finals: What to expect?

Will a new champion be crowned on Saturday or can Aryna Sabalenka retain her title?

Coco Gauff & Elena Rybakina / Demi-finales - WTA 1000 Toronto
©Mert Alper Dervis / Anadolu / Anadolu via AFP
 - Alex Sharp

The WTA’s tour-leading superstars have well and truly delivered this fortnight at Flushing Meadows.

The US Open women’s semi-finals contain the Top 4 seeds. This is only the second time ever in the Open Era – the last time the top quartet arrived in the US Open Final Four was back in 1975 with No.1 seed Chris Evert joined by Virginia Wade, Martina Navratilova and Evonne Goolagong Cawley.

Prior to this edition of the US Open, the most recent Grand Slam to feature all four WTA top seeds was the 2009 Wimbledon with a cast of No.1 Dinara Safina, the Willams sisters and Elena Dementieva.

The current crop are busy building their own Hall of Fame legacies. Let’s take a look at Thursday’s semi-finals under the lights on Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Aryna Sabalenka (No.1) vs Jessica Pegula (No.3)

💪 The context / The current form

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka may have relinquished the world No.1 ranking, following an outstanding 99 weeks at the peak of the sport, but the tiger has plenty to play for in New York City.

The two-time champion’s eyes light up when the ‘three-peat’ is mentioned and the 28-year-old is just two steps away from yet more history wielded by her racket. Sabalenka is playing like she has a point to prove, which is a real danger to the remaining three rivals.

Jessica Pegula in current form is going to take some stopping. The American No.1 leads the WTA with 50 wins already this year and the home charge has transferred that kind of consistency to the Big Apple.

Can Pegula gain revenge for two successive exits at the US Open at the hands of Sabalenka?

🏆 Their 2026 tournament

Sabalenka hasn’t tasted defeat at the US Open since falling narrowly short in the 2023 final.

The 28-year-old ripped through the draw until an almighty test in the quarter-finals facing Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova. The Czech led 4-2 in the decider, before Sabalenka roared back to record a 19th successive US Open victory. Without a title since achieving the ‘Sunshine Double’ in March, this could well be Sabalenka’s time to shine again.

1st round: victory against Camila Osorio 6-2, 6-4 (1hr 27mins)

2nd round: victory against Polina Iatcenko 6-1, 6-1 (54mins)

3rd round: victory against Kamilla Rakhimova 6-3, 6-4 (1hr 29mins)

Round of 16: victory against Taylor Townsend 6-4, 6-3 (1hr 15mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Linda Noskova 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(7) (2hrs 22mins)

The first stumbling block for Pegula came in the third round across the net from 2021 runner-up Leylah Fernandez. The American just couldn’t find her rhythm, but like all champions, she found a way. From then, the 32-year-old has portrayed to her home crowd why she is such a formidable force year-round on the tour.

1st round: victory against Elena-Gabriela Ruse 6-3, 6-2 (1hr 23mins)

2nd round: victory against Sofia Kenin 6-3, 6-1 (56mins)

3rd round: victory against Leylah Fernandez 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 (2hrs 11mins)

Round of 16: victory against Sorana Cirstea 6-3, 6-4 (1hr 25mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Emma Navarro 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 (2hrs 21mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

World No.1 Sabalenka will stride onto Arthur Ashe Stadium boosted by a 9-4 record in previous tussles with Pegula. Most significantly, this is a re-match of the 2024 final when Sabalenka prevailed 7-5, 7-5 and she also halted the American in the 2025 US Open semi-finals with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 comeback. Pegula can draw belief from victory in their most recent bout, a 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-0 scoreboard from the grass of Berlin.

 

🎤 Heard in media

Aryna Sabalenka: "Jessica is a really challenging player to play against. I can say that she really improved a lot in last couple of years, improved her game, really putting me under so much pressure.

“But I'm loving playing against her, because it's a battle, because it's a fight, and I love being under pressure and going through tough challenges. So playing against her, it's going to be really high-intensity level of tennis. I'm super excited.”

Jessica Pegula: “I think it's fun to look at it like a rivalry. I think that's what kind of motivates me… I think for me, I'm going to try to pull what I did well from that last match, but then also be aware that she's a top player, she's No.1 in the world.

“She's gotten me here the last couple of years. I have been able to beat her a few times, maybe on a smaller stage, so I think that's going to be kind of a hurdle for me to get over.

“We've challenged each other. I know that she's definitely pushed me to become a better player, so I always respect and appreciate that aspect of our rivalry.”

Coco Gauff (No.4) vs Elena Rybakina (No.2)

💪 The context / The current form

What an occasion for the Arthur Ashe Stadium to witness. On one side, 2023 US Open winner has found a heroic level of tennis this tournament. Replicating the kind of play that yielded the WTA 1000 Cincinnati title last month, Coco Gauff and the raucous home crowd are feeding off each other to create electric atmospheres.

Elena Rybakina has now consolidated the No.1 ranking on Monday, but insists it’s “just a number” and she still has business to attend to in NYC. Too right, what a way to celebrate reaching the summit of the rankings with a third Grand Slam trophy lift.

🏆 Their 2026 tournament

The scorelines don’t quite paint the full picture for Gauff. Saying that, every obstacle thrown into the 22-year-old’s path, she has managed the occasion with clarity and bold hitting. A huge fan of Marvel, Gauff was in her own superhero mode to erase two Mirra Andreeva match points in the quarter-finals to then soar into the semi-finals. Will that great escape embolden Gauff even more?

1st round: victory against Zeynep Sonmez 6-3, 6-4 (1hr 20mins)

2nd round: victory against Paula Badosa 6-4, 7-6(5) (2hrs)

3rd round: victory against Cristina Bucsa 6-3, 6-4 (1hr 28mins)

Round of 16: victory against Iva Jovic 6-1, 6-4 (1hr 33mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Mirra Andreeva 2-6, 7-6(7), 6-2 (2hrs 19mins)

As per usual, Rybakina has taken these major moments all in her stride. The way she swatted aside 2018 and 2020 US Open winner Noami Osaka was emphatic to say the least. Last time out, the manner in which the Kazakh reeled in the resurgent Zheng Qinwen was from a player at the peak of her powers.

1st round: victory against Thea Frodin 6-3, 6-2 (1hr 14mins)

2nd round: victory against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-2, 6-4 (1hr 8mins)

3rd round: victory against Yuliia Starodubtseva 7-6(6), 6-3 (1hr 52mins)

Round of 16: victory against Naomi Osaka 6-1, 6-4 (1hr 6mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Zheng Qinwen 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 (2hrs 14mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

Gauff claimed a three set, three-hour victory over Rybakina back in 2022 at the WTA 1000 Toronto. Same venue, but just a month ago, the Kazakh won that semi-final 5-7, 6-2, 6-2.

🎤 Heard in media

Coco Gauff: "Elena is playing some great tennis. Congrats to her for being the new World No.1 or will be the new World No.1. I think that's incredible.

“We played each other in Toronto. You know, didn't go my way, so I think I just have to learn from that match.

“I'm going to have some aces hit on me and some winners hit on me, but I'm going to keep fighting and give it my all. That's all I can do.”

Elena Rybakina: “Of course I will expect that a lot of people are going to support her. It's normal.

“We practiced many times. We played recently also, so we know each other.

“Again, I just need to stay aggressive. Try to not let my emotions not let me play, just enjoy. I think from where I was coming to this tournament, being injured and not practising, I think we came pretty far.

“Now we have the last pushes and important to still enjoy. Yeah, hopefully it's going to go my way.”